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The U.S. Economy is Said to Recover within Three Years


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    I haven't done a ton of research on this exact topic but I have been seeing a bunch of reports that the U.S. economy is said to "recover" from the bashing it's recently taken around the year 2023. In the grand scheme of things, that's really not that long to have a countries economy bounce back from something like this. This has me curious. Is that even possible?

    The reports and data so far has shown significant damage from the spread of the virus and what it's done to the economy from the ground up. It's affected business not only in the way of the stay at home orders cause no flow of money, but also hurt them financially in the long run. Some of them were closed for months. Small business owners like coffee shops, diners, hair and beauty salons, privately owned movies theaters, etc have been set back months and months of revenue and needed monthly business.

    As I'm sure most are aware, small business are a huge part of the economy and how the flow of money gets distributed to locals. So again, is it even possible for the economy to recover in under three years? I can definitely see the areas that weren't affected as much being fully recovered by then, but the U.S. economy as a whole?

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    Three years is both a blip on the radar and a terribly long time depending on how this crisis affects us personally. If you stay gainfully employed or are already retired and have a diverse enough portfolio to get you through this storm then three years will be over in no time. However, if you've been a bartender for 15 years and that's all you know then three years is basically an eternity.

    What's so different about this recession is, unlike past recessions, a ton of sectors are hit all at the same time. Cities shut down, which emptied office buildings throughout the country. It also emptied the corner coffee shop, lunch cafe, food cart pod, and everything else in between (outside of grocery stores). That's unprecedented and we really don't know the long-term effects of the first shutdown. I say first because we're almost certainly going to have more targeted shutdowns as this crisis rages on. Unfortunately, viruses don't care much about the economic impact they bring about.

    I would love it if we had a certain "this is when everything will be normal again" date to look forward to, but I just don't think that's realistic. There are too many unknowns right now.

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    I think when they say it can 'recover fully' I don' think they mean that every single sector will be back to 100% in three years. Unless that's what you are seeing? My guess is they mean taken as an aggregate, collectively, now vs where we were before all this, that we can get back to the same level of 'economic health overall' that we were at in roughly three years.

    I think that sounds realistic, assuming the worst of the shutdowns have passed. But that is of course a massive assumption. I do see more targeted shutdowns coming many times between now and the time we have a viable medical solution to treat/cure this outbreak. Which appears to be at least a year away. Maybe more. Maybe we never get a viable medical solution..

    Good example is the state I live in, Texas, just announced the re-closing of bars. So hard for me to think that restaurants and bars and theaters and night clubs and concert venues will be at 100% in just three years. That's what..36 months to recover from the lost revenue of 3 months of virtually no business, then several months of dramatically less business, followed by intermittent shut downs along the way. Doesn't seem long enough.

    So I guess it comes down to the definition of 'fully recover'. And what that means to you, and what qualifies as success given that definition.

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    WyattTown Wrote:

    Good example is the state I live in, Texas, just announced the re-closing of bars. So hard for me to think that restaurants and bars and theaters and night clubs and concert venues will be at 100% in just three years. That's what..36 months to recover from the lost revenue of 3 months of virtually no business, then several months of dramatically less business, followed by intermittent shut downs along the way. Doesn't seem long enough.

    I believe you're onto something here. I'd like to expand on this by saying that what we are experiencing is very unique, if not, unprecedented. When they say that the economy will recover, I don't think they are taking into consideration just how much this depends on the consumer. The closing of bars and entertainment venues, has shaped our society in such a way, that it will take more than just 3 years for your average consumer to venture out like they did pre-quarantine. Therefore, unless we see a solid social shift in behavior, consumerism is going to remain the same as it is now. A good example is tourism, many U.S. cities almost solely depend on tourism as their main source of income. Just something affected such as this trickles down into the smaller layers of both local and national economy.